Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.005268 0.005566 0.005873 0.006214 0.006583 0.006970 0.007408
2024-12-15 0.004739 0.005179 0.005654 0.006208 0.006839 0.007539 0.008377
2024-12-22 0.004378 0.004892 0.005465 0.006155 0.006970 0.007909 0.009084
2024-12-29 0.004064 0.004619 0.005252 0.006034 0.006984 0.008113 0.009574
2025-01-05 0.003820 0.004403 0.005081 0.005937 0.007002 0.008303 0.010040
2025-01-12 0.003669 0.004283 0.005011 0.005949 0.007144 0.008641 0.010700
2025-01-19 0.003422 0.004032 0.004765 0.005725 0.006969 0.008557 0.010793
2025-01-26 0.003317 0.003950 0.004722 0.005748 0.007106 0.008878 0.011441
2025-02-02 0.003287 0.003957 0.004787 0.005911 0.007429 0.009461 0.012484
2025-02-09 0.003157 0.003831 0.004675 0.005834 0.007423 0.009589 0.012886
2025-02-16 0.003061 0.003744 0.004609 0.005813 0.007489 0.009817 0.013443
2025-02-23 0.002962 0.003649 0.004528 0.005765 0.007514 0.009985 0.013915
2025-03-02 0.002923 0.003632 0.004551 0.005864 0.007754 0.010482 0.014942
2025-03-09 0.002846 0.003562 0.004500 0.005857 0.007840 0.010757 0.015640
2025-03-16 0.002759 0.003475 0.004422 0.005808 0.007861 0.010930 0.016183
2025-03-23 0.002655 0.003363 0.004305 0.005696 0.007780 0.010941 0.016450
2025-03-30 0.002566 0.003266 0.004206 0.005606 0.007728 0.010992 0.016786
2025-04-06 0.002516 0.003221 0.004177 0.005617 0.007829 0.011289 0.017573
2025-04-13 0.002397 0.003078 0.004006 0.005410 0.007582 0.011010 0.017306
2025-04-20 0.002357 0.003045 0.003988 0.005432 0.007694 0.011322 0.018139
2025-04-27 0.002359 0.003070 0.004055 0.005583 0.008017 0.012005 0.019723
2025-05-04 0.002294 0.002997 0.003979 0.005511 0.007976 0.012067 0.020119
2025-05-11 0.002248 0.002950 0.003937 0.005491 0.008019 0.012274 0.020817